00100		Science  and  technology  have  come  in  for  a  new wave of
00200	criticism recently.  I propose to discuss what is this criticism, who
00300	is criticizing, what validity does the criticism have, and what ought
00400	to be done.   In this article,  I  shall  mainly  confine  myself  to
00500	stating  opinions for the benefit of those to whose world-views these
00600	opinions might appeal in the hopes that  they  will  be  inspired  to
00700	appropriate  action.   Lack  of space precludes extensive attempts to
00800	convince people holding entirely different views.
00900	
01000		The  first  criticism  is  that  scientists  and   especially
01100	engineers  are  inferior  plastic  people.  No  doubt  scientists and
01200	engineers have tendencies to faults characteristic of the group,  but
01300	no  worse  than  other  groups.   In the main, these criticisms raise
01400	differences in taste to the level of morality and are  themselves  on
01500	the moral level of race and class prejudice.
01600	
01700		The  second  criticism  is  that  technology  has  made  some
01800	fundamental mistake - either technological civilization  is  bad  for
01900	human  beings  or it is destroying the planet or both. We distinguish
02000	this view from opinions that  various  specific  mistakes  have  been
02100	made,  but  the system as a whole can be salvaged. The view must also
02200	be distinguished from the Marxist view that  technology  is  OK,  but
02300	capitalism has to be clobbered.
02400	
02500		The main counter argument against the view that technological
02600	civilization  is  bad  for  human  beings  is  the  observation  that
02700	migration  is  predominantly  away from less technologically advanced
02800	areas towards the  more  advanced.   Even  the  vocal  detractors  of
02900	technology  rarely  move away from it.  Perhaps much of the nostalgia
03000	for earlier times comes from identifying with the wealthy of  earlier
03100	times about whom most of the novels are written.  It would be nice to
03200	have faithful and obsequious servants.  Thus the cry against the size
03300	of  the University of California may be regarded as a protest against
03400	equality of opportunity, for most of the growth of the university has
03500	come from the increasing proportion of youth getting higher education
03600	and not from population increase.  (Those of us who find the academic
03700	world  getting  crowded  should imagine what will happen when the 800
03800	million Chinese start writing  a  share  of  the  world's  scientific
03900	literature  proportional  to their population). We must learn to live
04000	with the consequences of equality of opportunity.
04005	
04010		There is a widespread though not universal belief that the
04015	world is getting worse and that technology is to blame.  Much of it
04020	seems to be simple misperception founded on tendencies to self pity.
04025	It is said that the air is unbreathable, the water is undrinkable,
04030	and it is increasingly difficult to drive anywhere.  I was particularly
04035	struck by one Stanford professor's remark that he can't remember when
04040	he was last able to see Mount Hamilton from the Stanford campus.  In
04045	fact, while smog is not getting better yet, it is far less unpleasant
04050	than the soot of soft coal burning cities, and the actual travel
04055	times of many routes in the Bay Area have been reduced (280 is very
04060	pleasant to drive on), and Mount Hamilton can be seen from Stanford
04065	at least 3/4 of the time.
04070	In short, the perception that things are getting worse contradicts
04075	both the statistics of living standards and longevity as well as
04080	direct observation.  I have found that this perception is very soft
04085	in that it yields readily to argument in contrast to other beliefs
04090	that intellectuals hold.
04100	
04200		The ecological criticism that technology  is  destroying  the
04300	planet  is  harder  to  answer,  because  to answer it fully requires
04400	proving that each of a large number of potential  disasters  will  be
04500	avoided   including   disasters   not   yet   even  imagined.   After
04600	considerable study of the literature,  my  own  conclusions  are  the
04700	following:
04800	
04900		1.  Population must be limited.  The U.S. could postpone this
05000	limitation for 100 years and  still  live  well  off  resources  from
05100	within  its  own  borders.   In  other  countries the problem is more
05200	acute, but they have to see the problem themselves as  they  in  fact
05300	are;  neither  by  precept nor by example nor by pressure can we make
05400	them do it.  What we can do is provide technology.
05500	
05600		2. It is easy to see trends  that  if  continued  will  bring
05700	about  disaster,  but  our  scientific  and political ability to spot
05800	these trends and  take  action  before  they  kill  people  has  been
05900	increasing.   Ancient ecological disasters where a population starved
06000	because it destroyed its food supply or populations were  reduced  by
06100	epidemics  are  not  occurring.   The prophets of doom have played an
06200	important role in this servo-mechanism, and it is a major  defect  of
06300	our  society  that  prophecy  of  disaster has been required to cause
06400	action.  Prophets of good news like we facile technological optimists
06500	have  a  hard  time  getting attention, because we admit that mankind
06600	will survive even if it doesn't follow our advice.
06700	
06800		3. There can be enough energy, food, and materials  to  bring
06900	even  twice  the present world population to twice the American level
07000	of affluence.
07005	To prove this would be quite difficult and lengthy, because each
07010	resource would have to be examined separately and its adequacy or
07015	substitutability established.  To prove the contrary is even harder,
07020	because it is difficult to limit other people's ingenuity in solving
07025	problems.
07100	
07200		4.  When  we  modify  the  workings  of  nature,  there   are
07300	side-effects  which require additional action, and these actions have
07400	further side-effects.  So far it has turned out that the systems have
07500	been  convergent.   Controlling the side-effects is easier than going
07600	back to  the  old  way,  and  the  secondary  side-effects  are  less
07700	important  than the primary ones.  As a computer scientist, I tend to
07800	expect programs to be eventually debugged  even  if  the  process  is
07900	lengthy and inconvenient.
08000	
08100		These  optimistic  views  are based on a different reading of
08200	recent history than the extreme critics.  For example, I  regard  the
08300	automobile  as  having turned out successful in the main. The freedom
08400	it has given the individual to live where he wants and  have  friends
08500	where  he  wants  is worth the inconveniences, and I believe the smog
08600	problem will be solved by any of  several  of  the  approaches  being
08700	tried.
08800	
08900		Well,  if  we  scientist and engineers are so good, why doesn't
09000	everybody love us?  Is it just bad public relations?  In my  opinion,  the
09100	trouble  is  that  we  haven't  done much for the middle class lately
09200	except enlarge it.   Far from having created future shock by changing
09300	the  world  too  much,  we have done much less recently than was done
09400	around the turn of the  century.   Consider  that  in  the  50  years
09500	preceding  1920,  technology produced the telephone, electric lights,
09600	refrigeration,  the  automobile,  the  airplane,  and   radio.    The
09700	important  recent  innovations in daily life have been television and
09800	the pill.  The others have allowed more people to enjoy  the  goodies
09900	of previous technology by increasing productivity, but evidently this
10000	is not enough to save us from criticism.
10100	
10200		Why haven't we done more recently?  Three reasons.
10300	
10400		1. At the request of the people through  the  government,  we
10500	spent  our  time  fighting menaces rather than inventing good things.
10600	For a long time the menace was presumed to be  military,  and  so  we
10700	invented  lots  of  weapons.  Now they are less interested in weapons
10800	which is good.  The conservative ideology that objects to  government
10900	subsidy  of  technology except when there is a menace involved didn't
11000	help.  (Remember that the Federal Highway Program  was  justified  on
11100	the grounds of national defense).
11150	The current menace is pollution; the problem is important and will
11175	be solved, but we should not expend all our thought on menaces; making
11187	positive improvements should get even more attention.
11200	
11300		2.  The  mine  of  easy  mechanical  invention was exhausted.
11400	Dishwashers and refrigerators are easy; a real house-cleaning machine
11500	will  require  the  use  of a computer.  We are about ready for a new
11600	wave of invention affecting daily life mostly involving  the  use  of
11700	computers.   Let  me  tell (not now) you  about  the  home  computer terminal,
11800	computer  driven  cars,  automatic   home   delivery   systems,   the
11900	elimination  of  money,  and  the  national jukebox, and the personal
12000	telephone.
12100	
12200		3.  The  over-selling  of  pure  science   especially   among
12300	potential  scientists.   The  selling  of  pure  science started when
12400	science consumed an infinitesimal proportion of the GNP and  occupied
12500	a  vey  small  portion  of the very intelligent people.  The case for
12600	increasing its support was quite valid. The present  situation  where
12700	practical   application   is   looked  down  on,  especially  in  the
12800	under-developed countries is quite different.  One visits  institutes
12900	in  these  countries  that are at the forefront of world science, but
13000	which make very little  contribution  to  the  advancement  of  their
13100	countries.   The same situation prevails in the United States, but is
13200	hidden, because we don't know what people  would  have  invented  had
13300	they  tried.  The  aspect of the Chinese Cultural Revolution in which
13400	scientists were criticized for their remoteness  from  the  country's
13500	problems was justified.  This is not to say that the remedies adopted
13600	will necessarily work.
13700	
13800		Scientists and technologists are worried  about  unemployment
13900	and  manpower  statisticians  say there are too many of us.  In fact,
14000	there is plenty of work, even if we can't all follow exactly  in  the
14100	footsteps of our professors.  Specifically, we need to figure out how
14200	to reduce the cost of construction  by  a  factor  of  three  so  the
14300	country  can  be  rebuilt,  we  need  to  figure  out how to have the
14400	mobility of the car without the traffic jams and the smog, we need to
14500	figure  out  how to get all that boring office work done by computer,
14600	we need to figure out how to get and use  energy  without  pollution.
14700	Most  of  all,  we  need to invent ways of making life better and not
14800	merely respond to threats of disaster.
14900	
15000		The economists had better figure  out  how  we  can  get  the
15100	benefits of all these changes without mass unemployment.
15200	
15300		Perhaps,  the  editors  of  Chaparral  will  let  me  be more
15400	specific about some of these points in future issues.